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17. 3. 7 S =1 S = 6475 i ij j  (PF ) i ij j trips were attracted to zone A. 3 is used to estimate what proportion of this total amount sets out from each of the other six zones, based on the relative number of trips produced by each of the six zones and the time taken to travel from each to zone A. 18. 19 is obtained. 19 Initial output from gravity model Destination zone Origin zone A B C D E 5 905 1019 2446 1 713 8 060 4 791 740 1 547 1 201 5 418 F A B C D E F G 2053 1388 1150 1183 500 200 958 1391 1861 3947 2818 9 587 15 569 7 113 2 088 638 2361 1409 712 177 12 898 3 066 622 920 1 074 2174 Total 6475 40 900 8125 31 150 10 900 13 150 G Total 525 581 633 1 094 4 498 2 970 10 861 16 078 19 461 29 540 29 919 10 256 4 886 10 300 121 000 Forecasting Future Traffic Flows 39 vidual row does not sum to give the correct number of trips produced by each.

They include household income, car ownership, family size, number of workers within the household and housing density. The method does, however, assume that both car ownership and real income levels will increase in the future. This may not necessarily be the case. For example, the more people within a household and the more cars available to them, the more trips they will make; say we define 15 subgroups in terms of two characteristics – numbers within the household and number of cars available – and we estimate the number of trips each subgroup is likely to make during the course of the day.

The decision is assessed a period of time after its implementation in order to evaluate it on the basis of its achieved results. Scheme Appraisal for Highway Projects 45 Clear rationality, where a judgement is arrived at following a sequence of deliberately followed logical steps, lies at the basis of this model for decision-making. The principles of reasoned choice have been adapted into an analytic technique, called the rational approach, which has been detailed in Chapter 1. The scheme appraisal process for highway schemes can be broken down broadly into two sections: economic evaluation and environmental assessment.

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